Every season, the modern NBA approaches a certain… Probability.
Meaning: statistical flatness. Transfer of traditional role-based statistical differentiation. With each point at 3 points at 7 feet – or a double point at the tip guard – the lines categorically sorting the production by position fade. And over time, those lines will be erased.
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The view of Neverland, I’m not sure that’s good. The buffet with homogenized and categorized products becomes boring.
I like the versatile Swiss Army Knife lines like those of Dejounte Murray (10.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.1 APG). But give me variety.
Give me Chris Dunn’s Theft…. version 2.0 and a few other things of value.
1.5 block of Nerlens Noel packed in just 18.5 minutes.
Helping Ish Smith 4.9.
An innovative concentration of ready-to-use production helps to keep our masculine pleasures fresh.
Let’s take a moment to evaluate the experts, shall we? Unbalanced suppliers. A one-piece pony always on the line, ready to launch the only category you need to win your week.
Colleen Sexton, PG/SG Cleveland Cavaliers
2019-20 : 20.8 PPG
After his rookie season, my brain has described Sexton as a long-term emptyheaded playmaker – a player who scores, but doesn’t contribute much. I generally avoid players whose scores are empty for one reason: a too high concentrated average per game results in an inflated concept score.
And while Sexton last season concentrated most of his fantasy value in points per game, he has shown signs of statistical diversification in the future. It doubled its flights (from 0.5 SAP to 1.0 SAP) and improved its marking efficiency (from 52.0 TS% to 56.3 TS%).
But in 2021, Sexton’s reputation as a fleeting fantasy still rests largely on his bumps. And if empty player points bother me in principle (sharing is the spice of life), then points remain one of the rarest fantasy categories. And unlike most players who don’t score, Sexton’s ADP is actually the real value of his imagination.
Watch out for the other players: Zion Williamson, Kendrick Nunn, Marvin Bagley III.
DeAndre Jordan, Brooklyn Nets.
2019-20 : 10.0 GARS
Jordan’s attempt to recapture his fantasy has retreated into the end zone. He’s no longer at the top of the defensive list. Last season, for the first time ever, he took the average of one-digit points per game.
On the positive side, Jordan continues to significantly improve its free emission rate (43.0% in 2015-16, 68.0% last season). And he remains one of the most effective all-round players in the league (68.2% TS). But the volume of injection just isn’t there – at least not with the kind of weight that would really help those percentages move the needle.
Anyway, Jordan’s gonna start over in the fantasy with Jarrett Allen. As long as Jordan starts and stays above 20.0 MPH, it remains a clean and cheap source of rebound.
Watch out for the other players: Clint Capela, Tristan Thompson, Larry Nance Jr.
Yes, Morant, P.G., Memphis Grizzly.
2019-20 : 7.3 GPA
I’m using Morant as a warning. That he is selected as a future fantasy star (27.0 ADP) – but it represents only a slight regression in a few categories of pure volume in terms of presence and points per game.
As I wrote recently, I have more confidence in Morant to justify his high ADP than in Zion Williamson when it comes to sophomore stars. But Morant is at the limit of the average in terms of rebound (3.9 in 2019-20), flights (0.9 SPG), 3s (0.9 3PG) and shooting efficiency (55.6 TS). If we give Morant sticks in all these categories, the statistical atrophy – his inability to make progress in capturing statistics beyond the tools and points – will hurt him for a long time to come.
Watch out for the other players: Ricky Rubio, Mike Conley, Derrick Rose, Elfrid Payton.
Mikal Bridges, SF, Phoenix Suns.
2019-20 : 1.5 SAP
In the third season Bridges already belongs to the elite of the NBA in the field of flight production. But Bridges has more advantages than your usual one-stop-shop specialist. When I look at the game of Bridges, I think of Trevor Ariza: a player who was able to sharpen his gifts to fill and define a specific need (role on 3 and D).
With the right timing, Bridges might as well be a fantasy producer. The talent is definitely there. The same goes for defensive solidity. The immediate problem is playtime. With the departure of Kelly Oubre Jr. to Phoenix, Bridges has resumed the small forward role with the Suns.
But even without Aubre the forward rotation of Phoenix is still a bit too strong. Between Jay Crowder, Cameron Johnson and Dario Saric, Bridges will have to stay on defense to stay above 30 MPH.
Given its potential and elitist defensive performance, Bridges is behind schedule (ADP 129.5). This year the small attacker is dry in Wonderland, and performances like Bridges can mean the difference between a false victory and a defeat.
Watch out for the other players: Chris Dunn, Donte DiVincenzo, Markel Fultz…
Mitchell Robinson, C, New York Knicks.
2019-20 : 2.0 GMP
Basically, Robinson was one of my most disappointing players in a totally difficult 2019-20 season….. And I don’t suffer from Knick’s exceptionalism. I can only imagine how you Knicks fans must have felt.
Despite an elite defensive volume per minute play, debutant Robinson had no opportunities to expand per minute play.
My guess? Two criminals.
First of all: What a bad thing. Although he only recorded 23.1 MPH, Robinson fought his way to full time, starting with 3.2 kills per match.
Second: Oxygen deficiency. The opportunity shortfall is based on the fact that the Knicks signed 38 bigs (unofficial figure) last season after pitching on big free agents. Robinson struggled to show his growth while the Knicks performed one of the most boring musical chair games I’ve ever seen.
This season? Robinson has the same chance. But now the Knicks have to give time to colleague-specialist Nerlens Noel and new recruit Obi Topping. Not to forget Julius Randle and Kevin Knox II (who was Obi Toppin before Obi Toppin).
Duncan Robinson, SG/SF, Miami Heat.
2019-20 : 3.7 3PG
Miami was so much fun to watch last season. For me, heat and nuggets determine the concentrated appeal of bubble basketball. The dynamics of the Heat is like hot air popcorn: You never know who’s gonna float to the surface, warm up and explode.
In the second year Robinson fulfilled his narrow role with perfection. Robinson’s increased accuracy made him a decent player despite an average of only 9.4 goals per game. He succeeded because 8.5 of those 9.4 attempts came from far away – and Robinson turned that 3-point attempt course into a dirty course that paid 44.6% of the time.
Robinson’s other categories outside 3-point accuracy? What other categories? Not only is Robinson as existentially pure as one of the players on this list, but he is perhaps the purest basketball specialist.
Robinson’s path to singular new glory seems assured this season; all he has to do is confront potential contemporaries like Tyler Herro, Avery Bradley, Andre Iguodala and Kendrick Nunn. The list of contenders is long, but until Robinson’s 3-point shot is exhausted, the magic threshold of 4.0 3PG remains.
Free allowance percentage
Bojan Bogdanovic, SF/PF, Utah Jazz
It’s not really fair to call Bogdanovich a specialist. The score and the 3-point production clearly constitute a triple operational threat. But Fantasyland gets the green light from Bogdanovich, and I take the opportunity to bring his ADP back to life with a little oxygen.
I generally avoid defensive allergy attacks. But Bogdanovich’s offensive statistics are of a quality I can’t ignore. By playing in Utah last season, Bogdanovic reached a fantastic new level. The three-point production has become elitist (3.0 3PG, 41.4 3FG%). He cracked the ceiling on 20.0 PPG.
But I really appreciate that Bogdanovic is able to create more possibilities on the line. This can be difficult for a player with his skills in the field. But Bogdanovic finished 4.4 times a game – and scored 90.3% of his attempts.
Watch out for the other players: Lou Williams (still), Danilo Gallinari…
Percentage of field
Brandon Clark, PF, Memphis Grizzlies.
After the Wizards, my beloved, pathologically and offensively obsessed, the Grizzlies are queuing up to be my favorite 2021 fantasy team. Why is that? It is the most glorious combination of expectations of young people and middle-aged people. The question is similar to the one in Phoenix: How do you deal with the minutes and touch them in that young man.
Clark is a step ahead in the fantasy world; his close double, my favorite, the one and only Jackson Jr. will start the campaign in streetwear. Pending Jackson’s return, Clark will have the opportunity to replicate the Boffo mini-runs he recorded during the 2019-20 season. I still have tears in my eyes when I think of Clark, who won three games last December with an average of 22.0 points and 6.7 rebounds for a score of 69.0% against Bunyan.
Clark is capable of pythonics in the field (sorry, pythonics is what happens when I have to temporarily stop writing to devote myself to my day job). The difficult position is the volume. Will Clark try to hit enough to achieve his percentage of success?
Therefore, dear reader… …they play games.
Watch out for the other players: Showl Harrell, Mason Plumlee, T.J. Warren…
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