Preparation for the NBA preseason… …in December. It’s a strange feeling.
Seems to be yesterday’s project. That the end was… The day before yesterday.
After taking so long to complete the 2019-20 season, it’s as simple as this: last year’s newcomers are young veterans; our new sophomore class.
But deep down inside, I wonder: Does the rapid recovery of NBA basketball affect the development of players in the 2nd division in the short term?
Professional athletes work at their own pace. Your own pace. But in the years 2020-21, NBA players are called upon to hurry.
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Will the sophomore students produce as quasi-novities this season (translation: will they be disappointed)? Or, conversely, is there a 2020-21 scenario in which young people can be served?
We have a long session with a long popovichian cosplay. As in: Coaches throughout the competition are starting to separate all types of tax management.
Veterans need to rest early in the morning. But sophomore veterans don’t need an extra rest. This could be an opportunity for them.
In a shortened regular season schedule that really looks like a preamble to the playoffs, what keeps lottery teams from using 20 to 25 games to develop their youth? (Fascinating for the imagination, as RPG teams are also franchises leading highly qualified sophomore students with the highest potential).
This is how I open our discussion about the top 10 second-year fantasy students.
10. Rui Hachimura, SF/PF, Wizard of Washington.
Hachimura recorded his difficult minutes in August. The agreed evaluation was completed (13.3 PPGs in August).
But unfortunately for this wizard fan, he didn’t do enough in other categories (6.3 RPG, 3.0 APG, 0.3 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 0.8 3PG) to do more than beat last season’s record of 120 ESPN.
Hachimura is a girl, and she’s really showing off in defense. The fantasy is that the missing identity will appear in his reports.
He had the unfortunate tendency to produce only a secondary category for each individual game.
A game? He robbed you several times. Next game? He’d scored a couple of times. Once in a while? In fact, he would have blocked the shot. (Khachimura is a good pass, so its pass speed is slightly higher than the one of the replacement in place).
Oh, and as I write this, my troubled wizard brain is reworking a recent John Wall Russell Westbrook deal.
Now that Westbrook has devoured the Wizard’s estate for miles, it’s hard to see how Hachimura has improved over the past season… except for the fact that he has more consistent statistics at his core.
And there will be no more free minutes, because the Wizards have prepared a good SF prospect in Denia Avdiya, which will be impossible to keep on the bench.
When you’re in Hachimura this season, you look the other way.
9. Darius Garland, P.G., Cleveland Cavaliers.
I’m saying this for Garland: I prefer her long-term prospects to those of Colleen Sexton.
I don’t know if Garland has the upper limit one expects from a top five, but it already shows a variety of products from different categories. Extended minutes, a stable role and some clarity in the choice of plans can work wonders.
At first glance, Garland’s percentage of newcomers is disappointing with 40.1%, but in Garland’s case, this anemic percentage conceals a hidden silver lining. Because Garland was one of the few young defenders whose 3-point percentage (35.5 3FG%) almost surpassed his total score, which tells me Garland probably just has to smooth out his shooting division.
Take a look at the basketball manual, and of course, there it is: He was bad at 3-10 feet and invisible at depth 2. I don’t like to use this compass and I don’t read much with it. But it’s a bit like what Damian Lillard had to overcome at the beginning of his career.
Darius Garland will never, ever be Damien Lillard. And Sexton’s taking me with him. His conclusions are too short-sighted to believe.
But Garland’s got something. He’s only 20 years old. We need to see how the situation develops with Kevin Porter Jr., but Garland is a good deep league final.
8. RJ Barrett, SG/SF, New York Knicks.
I can see Barrett’s a little higher up on that list.
There is a positive moment both in terms of its role (it is a slot for those who exceed 30 MPG) and because it has nowhere else to go but to increase efficiency (47.9 TS% last season).
There are positive indicators. It closed 2019-20 with an average of 17.2 PCA, 4.5 PCA and 1.4 3 PCA after the All Stars weekend. The Knicks have had a quiet and fairly low season.
The consecutive minutes, a more comfortable changing room and the placement of efficiency improvements in the second year are good predictions for the second year. Obi Toppin is going to take a few pictures, but Barrett enters the season with a clear situation.
The result: Barrett will bend some good secondary statistics of the net volume and press 3.0-3.5 blocks + seal + 3 s per set. However, if he raises the TS% to 50.0%, he can score 17.0 points per game. If the TS% rises close to 55.0%, the average will be 20.0 PPG.
7. Cameron Johnson, SG/SF, Phoenix Sans.
If Hachimura and Barrett get a chance to play longer, the role of Johnson will be darker – yet I have passed on the role of Johnson to them. What for?
Two reasons: It is already a reliable 3-point pointer and ensures stable and diversified secondary production.
Think of the enormous potential and you’ll have a big dream. Low risk, average income, looks good in a bank for 12 people.
With his diversified statistics portfolio, Johnson will soon be helping great teams. Secondary statistics give it a raised floor for construction. Even when Jae-Crowder vacuums the garden – and Michael Bridges is already there and participating – the Johnson floor per game is 3.5-4.0 3s+blocks+seals.
6. Tyler Herro, S.G., Miami Heath.
Herro is a 2021 edition of the lesser known but not too fantastic archetype: the player with glasses in the play-offs. Nothing increases the selection speed of a player artificially like a playoff heroine. And Herro’s energetic outburst in the playoffs should have increased his score.
And then to think: If you take the bounce for a game, maybe half a 3 points, Herro becomes the 2021 edition of another, less known, insufficiently resourceful type: the player with empty seats.
Gerro is on the border between multi-category productivity and one-dimensional short-term vision (still a 3-point specialist).
In addition, Gerro is the first player on that list to play in the playoffs for a team with deep and serious expectations. And in a team with expectations, the arrival of a seasoned veterinarian at your Avery Bradley station is not a positive moment for Gerro’s season.
Yet we all saw the benefits of the 37 point hysteria he provoked against Boston. Production of the Top 75 is possible. But don’t pay too much for the privilege of knowing he can do it.
5. PJ Washington, PF, Charlotte Horns.
I mean, come on. The first sophomore I put in the top 100.
Washington is kind of a newer version of Hachimura. It is teenager in size, but strong and mobile enough to defend different positions effectively. He can play with four players and keep the Draymond-style fortress as the centre of the small ball.
Washington started strong last season, but then faced a common problem for the newcomers before: He was the victim of his own success. I mean..: Its role has expanded and its effectiveness has diminished. This is a problem that many beginners have in common (as opposed to the mythical and non-existent beginner’s wall).
I’ll light a candle and hope James Borrego gets away with it. The Washington, DC, Miles Bridges line on PF, Gordon Hayward on SF, Terry Rozier on SG and LaMelo Ball/Devonte’ Graham on PG will give a positive statistical boost.
There’s plenty of room for growth in Washington. Even with the second half of the efficiency loss, Washington has won a significant replacement TS% (54.7%) for the season. But he’s anemic at 64.7 FT%. A slight rise there, as well as the expected rise of all the hornets of the already elitist vision of the ship La Melo? Cooking for gas.
Pencil in Washington on the 5th, and it opens up all kinds of advanced fantastic possibilities.
4. Kobe White, PG, Chicago Bulls.
Speaking of magicians, I’m gonna throw away another computer that’s too dramatic:
An early white rose? His strong conclusion? An explosive image of me in February/March? All this reminds me terribly of a certain Agent Zero who resigned to complete his recruitment campaign in 2002.
I see a lot of Gilbert Arenas in Coby White.
The ability to keep score. Cheer up. Fearlessness. Total and total absence of hesitation to shoot at any time and in any place.
I first noticed the comparison at the end of February when I saw the Bull Wizards race. White delivered a very flammable Washington defense at 33 points and 5 3 seconds. He was six out of seven years old. Six rebounds, two robberies and a block were added.
But what the company really cemented was White’s total disregard for the price of basketball. In the middle of a career game he refused to move the ball. In the end, White only threw away two helpers.
Early arenas also tended to forget that he was a long-distance point guard. Fuck the Prime Arenas too.
Another similarity is the striped shot from the field. And just like in the early arenas (and Garland), White’s 3-point score (35.4%) was almost higher than the total percentage of goals scored on the field (39.4%).
The key is this season: Can Billy Donovan do anything more than a white semi? It doesn’t matter if White’s the combo-guard in charge. He just can’t go backwards by playing Arrow. Highlight this combined surveillance duality and then Donovan White can start with a pure heart.
Come on, Coach… buy a ticket, take a ride.
3. Michael Porter Jr., SF/PF, Denver Nuggets.
Jerami Grant is a sucker now. Okay, all decks are clear. For Porter, 30 minutes or more is a sitting game.
In a limited sample we got a glimpse of what Michael Porter Jr. will deliver in 30 minutes. The ceiling: 20 PPG, 10 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 2.0 3PG, 60.0 TS%.
I mean..: Porter is just a nod to the beginning and a few statistical levers of the top 40. If you just add your minutes (and volume) to those of your newcomers, you’re almost there.
What’s not to like? Wear has two oversaturated red flags; warning signs should be easily recognisable by managers.
Red flag no. 1 : Injury history. Porter is only a sophomore in the spirit of the NBA. He missed his whole newcomer season because of a back injury. He has a long proven medical history dating back to high school. Is this the Blake Griffin situation? Will Porter be known as another talented and athletic giant who plays too hard to stay on the field?
Red flag number 2: Defence efforts. Porter is not known for his defensive intensity in blocking – which can be half acceptable for young and developing teams if you put him on the attack.
But in the recent finals of the Western Conference? Denver was one of the winners of the match of Anthony Davis, who was not really afraid of the match with 6-7 on the final champions.
Nugget’s rough childhood phase? Come on in. It’s done. Denver’s goal at the Western Jump Conference is to present itself as one of the top three teams. (Depending on how Portland leaves the gate. Worst case, of the first four)
There’s a lot at stake. If the defensive strategy inspired by the Toreros cannot be strengthened, Porter’s status can be reduced to six.
Poor health and lack of power D nails Porter, who plays full-time throughout the season. But if you are like me and remember that Porter was posted in August (29.3 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 3.5 3PG, 1.3 SPG, 1.0 BPG), and that Porter keeps up to 7 hits in your design, then you will catch everything that will be hard to ignore.
2. Zion Williamson, PF, New Orleans Pelican.
I could probably gather enough analytical and rhetorical power to tie Zion to the top of the list.
But then I’d be doing you a disservice. Because you need to be warned.
Zion carries all the statistical red flags of the most dangerous fantasy forms: The man-generation-flash-drum-reality-not-a-fancy player.
He looks more and more like Blake Griffin: a player who fights against excessive excitement and high statistical expectations – who lacks points in boxing. Expectations and fantastic staging do not go together.
The two newcomers, Griffin in the early years and Zion in the early years, show statistical weaknesses in different directions.
In terms of efficiency: low percentage of free throws. Zion made only 64% of his free throws as a beginner. It’s a big problem. Because production after 30 years? So that the actual value of Zion is in line with the estimate? Williamson has to do better than that. About 80% of the line.
Because Zion, as a beginner, did not strengthen his position in the elite 3-point products; his skinny 0.7 3PG was a big problem.
Second, in addition to the flaws of the offense, Williamson has failed to develop strong sources of production in the defense categories. That was disappointing because his college had a strong defensive history.
At Duke, Zion carried out heavy counter-attacks on the defense (2.1 flights, 1.8 blocks). But this story took place at MIA during Williamson’s newcomer season. Williamson even tried to keep the level of the blocks + sigils above the skinny 1.0 per match.
As a newcomer, Williamson, although linked to the statistics of the game, has barely reached the top 100 of fantasy basketball players. At the time of writing, his ADP is 22 years old.
I mean..: According to the only statistics we have, Williamson is 60-70 points overrated. Even taking into account some generous improvements in the second year (more than 3, blocks and flights, plus a better FT%)? Williamson just made the top 40.
So even after all these improvements it still projects as a lightweight bust. The fantasy isn’t real.
Sion is the noisiest sophomore since Lebron. He seems so excited. But as with Griffin, it can take several seasons for its true value to be reflected in a more realistic ADP.
1. Yes, Morant, P.G., Memphis Grizzly.
Morant is currently at 28 ADP. But he’s got a much better chance of finding that note than Williamson.
Morant has the same transcendental superstar potential as Williamson. But he doesn’t have to fight this hype. As a newcomer, Morant met his expectations in terms of points (18.1 GPA), assistance (7.3 GPA) and rebounds (3.9 GPA).
He also managed the exchange of actors at production level with regard to the efficiency of recordings. Its 47.7% FG, 33.6% 3FG and 77.6% FT together represented the 55.6% TS perfectly acceptable. In the second year, only a modest increase of 3 points and an increase of attempts and penalties to get closer to the top 30 is needed.
Like Williamson, Morant is likely to see his defense stats rise. Morant was unable to solve Flight 1.0 as a beginner (0.9 GSP). To achieve his elite score, Morant eventually had to double his bet on a rookie.
After all, Morant Williamson is cutting for lock 1 for a very simple reason: Morant has a much, much better chance of justifying his high PDA.
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