I warned you about Miles Turner.
In my bold prediction for this season, I told you that Turner was built specifically for ESPN.com’s new points system. This Turner would have been in the top 30. And that he would overtake Rudy Gobert and Bam Adebayo.
Seven games, I think we can call it: I’m always right.
After evaluating all the numbers of this season and filtering them using the new scoring system, I found that three groups of players in particular scored disproportionately: 1) small forward, 2) large ones that block, steal, and 3) large guards without a point of contact, who are sensitive to turnover.
Turner is the embodiment of Group 2.
Why exactly did Turner excel as a Bold Predictor? Because not only was his game ready for the system, but it seemed that Fantasyland had decided to spend all his seed money on another atypical producer on the front burner in Indiana: Domantas Sabonis.
Sabonis is an assassin. But in most projects he went where he had to go. Turner didn’t do it. I therefore encourage everyone who is still preparing the project.
Fault! The file name is not specified. The playing style ofMiles Turner has made him a force to be reckoned with in ESPN’s new marker format. AP Photo/Doug McShkolnik
I think we’ll see more competitions this year than usual. The beginning of this season falls at a strange time, the heart of the holidays, the general state of the world…. All this means that some fantasy fans are still waiting for the design.
Are you still thinking about milking or some of the early season jobs? Non-GPs with high power and low speed deserve further consideration.
Today I would like to look at the third group. Players who own a relatively large percentage of the property and are not players.
How can we identify these actors? With one of our most valuable secondary statistics. One of the statistics that feeds the statistics that generates fantastic value: Speed of use.
I tend to emphasize the great fault line in sharing and managing fantastic value: Volume vs. efficiency. I’ve long appreciated players who dominate possession, who do it effectively and achieve positive results. Players who generate assists, score points and 3s. I mean, uh… I mean, uh… Point security.
But this season, the playmaker plays like a madman. Too much affordability. And ESPN’s new classification system reinforces greed. There are so many values played on the playing field that it is difficult to distinguish between the positions. The malfunction of the point guard came through the window.
But if you look at the non-periodic guards who control the property… We’re beginning to find value.
The usage rate tells us how much equipment an individual player has available where he is on the ground. If you have the ball in your hands more often, you are bound to get more statistical results. This result can be negative if you include the sales figures. But in all other respects, the players get great results: Points, assistance and 3.
The speed of use can confirm the obvious. It goes without saying that many of the top 20 players will be in demand. But small jumps in use can make subtle differences in the top 20. And even subtle differences that are high are big differences. Look at the top 20 ADP players producing their brilliantly high ADPs – Jason Tatum and Bradley Beal. They also have a high occupancy rate (30.6 and 34.7).
Make your choice in the playoffs and compete for $30,000! Make your choice
What we want to do is look at some players who are badly suited for the start of the season and who might still be undervalued in your league.
After all, high usage is not necessarily synonymous with the other important factor that determines volume: Minutes. When young players make the jump in action, it’s usually for one of two reasons: 1) they’re the sixth player lined up in instant offensive play, or 2) they make the jump in the overall development of the NBA.
What we want to do is identify young teenagers or benchwarmers who have a better chance if they have ball possession. Well, let’s see.
Jaylen Brown, SG/SF, Boston Celtics USG% : 29.3
For those who keep an eye on the future fantasy elite, Brown’s number of bets is increasing as expected.
After having worked with small stable sticks for his first four seasons, he is now in 2020-21. Brown’s only 29.3. He’s about to become a magical imagination: 30.0. This is usually when very good wingers become fancy all-stars.
For the development of the young wings of the elite, the most important development characteristic remains: Will their efficiency increase as their minutes and touches multiply? Do they improve on the ground by playing a bigger role? All these trends suggest that Brown could end the season in the top 15 scorers. The good news is: The volume statistics (26.2 STP, 5.4 BAR, 3.3 GPA, 2.3 GPA, 1.7 LNG) are already in the top 15. The Commission considers that most of these countries will not be able to enter the market in the future. The best news: The yield (24.8 PER, 62.7 TS%) is currently also in the top 15.
Caris LeVert, SG/SF, Brooklyn Nets USG% : 29.3
Fantasyland understands that LeVert will be a difficult player in the team this season. With a constant diet at 30.0 MPH, LeVert will get the top 30 fantasy on the rise. But early signs of the season suggest that LeVert’s minutes will depend on Kevin Durant’s availability, making him difficult to judge for two reasons.
First of all: Will the minutes of LeVert decrease when Durant is back at full strength?
This year the leverage only starts at 28. December, a mandatory day off for Durant and Kyrie Irving. It’s no coincidence that LeVert had his best match tonight (28 points, 11 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 3s, 5 steels, 65 points total).
But what happens when the season progresses and Durant’s workload decreases? Because LeVert probably needs more normality to overcome the second problem.
Second: Will LeVert become a more effective player?
LeVert has never been known for its shooting consistency and its performance in the field oscillated between hot and cold. He also noticed a disturbing trend among many young fantasy players who never become the elite: The more important his role is, the more the percentage of real shootings decreases.
Lever’s best shooting season? His rookie campaign, his only season so far where he has achieved a championship average (55.6 TS%). He hasn’t been in the field since.
Suppose LeVert remains at the current average of 25.5 MPH. Then the degree of use rises to an existential meaning in the sense of a fantasy value. Realistically, it should remain at around 30.0% of GDP to get the hits it needs to generate output.
De’Aaron Fox, PG, Sacramento Kings USG: 28.4
Fox is a leader, but I’m taking him into this discussion for a reason: Tyrese Haliburton. Their fancy values are highly dependent on both players who are the star…. level minutes and keys and not cannibalize each other.
In fact, Fox’s occupancy rate has decreased slightly compared to last season. But it was good news at the beginning of the season when he maintained a high level of possession given the addition of Haliburton….. Until Fox pulled an Achilles tendon last night.
There’s not a word in that letter about the severity of the injury. But each extended time on the shelf could open the door for a few more minutes for Haliburton, who was impressed in a long time (17 points, 6 assists, 7 rebounds, 3 steals, 54 fancy points in total).
Fox provides a list of statistics that show the potential of the elite. But he’s a better player in the point leagues than in the ro-to-leagues. This is because the weaknesses in the statistics lie in areas where the score is penalized.
Haliburton plans to become a more effective actor. But Fox has just signed a maximum extension, so you want to assume there is a big coexistence plan for Fox and Haliburton. But, uh… we’re talking about Sacramento here.
Dillon Brooks, SG/SF, Memphis Grizzlies USG%: 27.9
Three to five weeks. Brooks won’t have time to cut off much of the terrain for a while. Because that’s how long Jar Morant’s release is planned. It’s obvious they’re playing different positions. But Brooks jumped at the chance and ordered Memphis to go on the offensive. And the associated increase in usage is a performance bonus.
Brooks is currently knocking on the door of the top 50 when it comes to points. Like the other players on this list (except Brown), Brooks is much better at scoring than rotating. In the championships, Brooks’ increased volume (for lack of Morant) gave him plenty of opportunities to overcome his poor marksmanship (47.8 TS%) and his tendency to pass the ball (2.7 TPG).
Brooks hits only 38.7% of his pitches off the field. It’s no good. Any good news? It reached 35.4% of the 3 points. It’s mediocre. But Brooks will have to improve his efficiency to keep his expanded role under control as soon as Morant returns.
Jordan Clarkson, SG, Utah Jazz USG%: 27.5
Here’s a deep reflection for you. Clarkson scores an average of just 22.4 MPH, but he scores a lot like the offensive anchor of the Jazz’s second unit. And he continues his career with an average of 3 points (5.4 3PA) and an average of 2 points (6.5 2PA). Add to that its current 41.9 3PT% (which would be a career high), solid flights (1.1 GPA) and rebounds (4.0 RPG), and you’ve got the deep league’s sustained production reach.